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Reasoning about Confidence and Uncertainty in Assurance Cases: A Survey

Date of Publication: 
July 2014
Associated Research Groups: 
Publication Files: 
Abstract: 
Assurance cases are structured logical arguments supported by evidence that explain how systems, possibly software systems, satisfy desirable properties for safety, security or reliability. The confidence in both the logical reasoning and the underlying evidence is a factor that must be considered carefully when evaluating an assurance case; the developers must have confidence in their case before the system is delivered and the assurance case reviewer, such as a regulatory body, must have adequate confidence in the case before approving the system for use. A necessary aspect of gaining confidence in the assurance case is dealing with uncertainty, which may have several sources. Uncertainty, often impossible to eliminate, nevertheless undermines confidence and must therefore be sufficiently bounded. It can be broadly classified into two types, aleatory (statistical) and epistemic (systematic). This paper surveys how researchers have reasoned about uncertainty in assurance cases. We analyze existing literature to identify the type of uncertainty addressed and distinguish between qualitative and quantitative approaches for dealing with uncertainty.
Venue: 
4th International Symposium on Foundations of Health Information Engineering and Systems/6th International Workshop on Software Engineering in Health Care in Arlington, VA, July 2014
bibtex: 
@inproceedings{duan2014, author = "\textbf{Lian Duan} and Sanjai Rayadurgam and Mats P.E. Heimdahl and Anaheed Ayoub and Oleg Sokolsky and Insup Lee", title = "Reasoning about Confidence and Uncertainty in Assurance Cases: A Survey", booktitle= "4th International Symposium on Foundations of Health Information Engineering and Systems/6th International Workshop on Software Engineering in Health Care", year = 2014, }